A Predicted Collapse, A Planned Substitution.
Intel was fundamentally accurate and on-point in predicting the trajectory of the Taliban takeover.
Fair warning: if you haven’t read my other articles on Afghanistan, then you may not get where I am coming from in this one. I’m kind of picking up where I left off over a month ago. So if you missed those articles, I suggest starting here.
This is an interesting read.
Here are some of my thoughts on it:
-The Intel agencies knew the Afghan Govt/Forces would collapse.
-They disagreed on the timing of the collapse.
-Both Presidents Trump and Biden were receiving reports, continuously. The Doha Agreement was signed in February 2020. April 2020 is when the Taliban began their offensive campaigns against the Afghan Forces and also when the continuous reports began to be delivered to President Trump and next President Biden.
-The Biden Admin forced, by way of limiting how many troops were available, our military to give up Bagram. Because they wanted the Embassy and Kabul airport protected, instead. Then, State Dept pulled all their staff from Embassy and abandoned it anyway. The result was the chaotic withdrawal and stranding of Americans and allies.
It is one of the key ways that the Biden Admin fucked up the withdrawal. Incompetence? Purposeful sabotage? I can see it either way and lean towards the latter.
Gen McKenzie testified to the Senate, last month, that everyone was shocked at how quickly it, the collapse of Afghan gov’t/forces, occurred and pointed to President Ghani and Afghan leadership abandoning country as a key reason for the rapidity.
Please understand this: President Trump and Secretary Pompeo knew the Afghan Govt and Afghan Forces would not last, hence they made the deal with the Taliban in Doha.
Get it? Planned. All Planned.
At some point, people will start to understand that THE ONLY way to exit Afghanistan was to make a deal with the Taliban. The collapse of the Afghan Government and their Forces was predicted. The Trump Administration made a planned substitution in a hollowed out and GCC backed Taliban.
The Afghan Govt and their Armed Forces were a propped up mafia state and a jobs program. Once the money stopped coming in, once we left, they would cease to exist.
Absent a replacement, there would be chaos, where many factions and nations could potentially take advantage of Afghanistan’s minerals and people.
Now, would we prefer they collapse and Afghanistan become a haven for Islamic State terrorists? A CCP or Iranian puppet state? Or a nation state run by a hollowed out and GCC influenced Taliban? A Westernized, liberty loving, free and open Democracy or Republic is not an option here. It’s a fantasy. This is Afghanistan we are talking about!
“We’re dealing very well with the Taliban,” ... “They’re very tough, they’re very smart, they’re very sharp, but you know it’s been 19 years and even they are tired of fighting, in all fairness.”
-President Trump
The Taliban were MADE to understand the deal.
And they were smart enough to TAKE IT.
As we drew down our forces, the Taliban began to take control of the country.
Taliban didn’t need to “focus elsewhere”, they had already dealt with key provinces, districts, and regional leaders. Either by defeating them in battle or making deals with them. Afghan Forces also stopped showing up. They knew their paychecks were ending and their government would collapse in the Summer of 2021, so they simply quit. The Afghan Govt leadership also foresaw this, so they stuffed their suitcases with cash and valuables and fled the country.
And as Afghan forces abandoned their equipment, the Taliban said "thank you very much! These vehicles, these aircraft, this equipment will go a long way towards helping us set up our new nation!”
Such was the level of desertion by the Afghan Forces that when the Taliban reached Kabul, it was captured by “a couple of hundred men on motorcycles, without a shot being fired.”
The city had been abandoned.
Today, Taliban control the country. You may think this is a bad thing, but what would you prefer? Another twenty years of the US and NATO being there? Iran annexing the country? CCP setting up a puppet state? An Islamic State terrorist hive?
Wars don’t have perfect endings. They have negotiated endings.
Since we left, here’s some of what has been going on:
-Taliban has set up a government
-Taliban are going door to door routing out IS cells.
-Taliban are training special forces to fight IS.
-Taliban are making deals for infrastructure and industry.
-Taliban are hosting delegations from other nations.
-Taliban have met with US delegations in Doha.
-Taliban are seeking recognition at the UN.
The Taliban are setting up a REAL Nation State.
It's not over, though. The Doha agreement is still in play. Boxes, on both sides, are yet to be checked.
"We'll see what happens." -DJT
I’d like to point out one last thing. This is the key error in almost ALL reporting on Afghanistan over the past 18 months or so.
As of the Doha Agreement, the government in Kabul ceased being a U.S.- backed government. That’s why they were against the agreement.
And as of September 2021, there is now a GCC backed government in Kabul. And that government, is also backed by the Doha Agreement.
Lots of things seemed off with Afghanistan, most was how fast it happened, you explained this quite well in your articles keep up the great work.
Good read and refresher on what 45s admin was doing. Was very pleased yesterday to read that the T had killed a big IS ringleader involved with murdering our people.