Dissecting the July 23rd, 2021 phone call between Biden and Ghani
The Leaked Transcript.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani spoke by phone July 23. Here are excerpts from that call, based on a transcript and recording reviewed by Reuters:
BIDEN: Mr. President. Joe Biden.
GHANI: Of course, Mr. President, such a pleasure to hear your voice.
BIDEN: You know, I am a moment late. But I mean it sincerely. Hey look, I want to make it clear that I am not a military man any more than you are, but I have been meeting with our Pentagon folks, and our national security people, as you have with ours and yours, and as you know and I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things aren’t going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban.
And there’s a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.
…..
BIDEN: If you empower Bismillah [Defense Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi] to execute a strategy focused on key parts of the population centers, and I’m not a military guy, so I’m not telling you what that plan should precisely look like, you’re going to get not only more help, but you’re going to get a perception that is going to change in terms of how , um…[unclear].. our allies and folks here in the States and other places think you’re doing.
You clearly have the best military, you have 300,000 well-armed forces versus 70–80,000 and they’re clearly capable of fighting well, we will continue to provide close air support, if we know what the plan is and what we are doing. And all the way through the end of August, and who knows what after that.
We are also going to continue to make sure your air force is capable of continuing to fly and provide air support. In addition to that we are going to continue to fight hard, diplomatically, politically, economically, to make sure your government not only survives, but is sustained and grows because it is clearly in the interest of the people of Afghanistan, that you succeed and you lead. And though I know this is presumptuous of me on one hand to say such things so directly to you, I have known you for a long while, I find you a brilliant and honorable man.
But I really think, I don’t know whether you’re aware, just how much the perception around the world is that this is looking like a losing proposition, which it is not, not that it necessarily is that, but so the conclusion I’m asking you to consider is to bring together everyone from [Former Vice President Abdul Rashid] Dostum, to [Former President Hamid] Karzai and in between, if they stand there and say they back the strategy you put together, and put a warrior in charge, you know a military man, [Defense Minister Bismillah] Khan in charge of executing that strategy, and that will change perception, and that will change an awful lot I think.
…
GHANI: Mr. President, we are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10–15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this, so that dimension needs to be taken account of.
Second, what is crucial is, close air support, and if I could make a request, you have been very generous, if your assistance, particularly to our air force be front loaded, because what we need at this moment, there was a very heavily reliance on air power, and we have prioritized that if it could be at all front-loaded, we will greatly appreciate it.
And third, regarding procedure for the rest of the assistance, for instance, military pay is not increased for over a decade. We need to make some gestures to rally everybody together so if you could assign the national security advisor or the Pentagon, anyone you wish to work with us on the details, so our expectations particularly regarding your close air support. There are agreements with the Taliban that we [or “you” this is unclear] are not previously aware of, and because of your air force was extremely cautious in attacking them.
And the last point, I just spoke again to Dr. Abdullah earlier, he went to negotiate with the Taliban, the Taliban showed no inclination. We can get to peace only if we rebalance the military situation. And I can assure you…
BIDEN: [crosstalk]
GHANI: And I can assure you I have been to four of our key cities, I’m constantly traveling with the vice president and others, we will be able to rally. Your assurance of support goes a very long way to enable us, to really mobilize in earnest. The urban resistance, Mr. President is been extraordinary, there are cities that have taken a siege of 55 days and that have not surrendered. Again, I thank you and I’m always just a phone call away. This is what a friend tells a friend, so please don’t feel that you’re imposing on me.
BIDEN: No, well, look, I, thank you. Look, close air support works only if there is a military strategy on the ground to support.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/excerpts-call-between-joe-biden-ashraf-ghani-july-23-2021-08-31/
Context.
June 19th, 2021
“Ghani has named General Bismillah Khan Mohammadi as his new defense minister. He will replace Asadullah Khalid, who has served in the role since 2018 but previously suffered severe injuries in a 2012 suicide bombing, forcing repeated treatments abroad.
Bismillah Khan Mohammadi previously fought under the late Ahmad Shah Massoud during the country’s civil war in the 1990s. Massoud was murdered by the Taliban just two days before the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in the US.”
July 10th, 2021
“In addition to pulling out all but a handful of troops from Afghanistan, the Pentagon has also flown thousands of contractors out of the country in recent weeks, leaving a skeleton force of several hundred behind to do everything the Afghans can’t — including fixing their own airplanes and helicopters and handling logistics.
As the withdrawal continues, more of that wrench turning will be done by Afghan crews, with U.S. contractors looking over their shoulders via Zoom or coaching them over the phone, defense officials say.
It’s not clear how that will work in practice, but the drawdown from over 16,000 contractors to hundreds could have a bigger effect on the security situation than sending home the last 2,500 U.S. troops, as the Afghan air force strains to keep its planes and helicopters in the sky, hunting Taliban fighters.”
Biden is betting big on Afghanistan's air force. But their problems continue to grow.
July 22nd, 2021
“A leaked Foreign Office report seen by Sky News warned government ministers on 22 July that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would lead to “rapid Taliban advances”.”
Here’s a very helpful map, the lower left image is for July 18th, 2021:
Now, lets take the highlighter out and mark some key sentences.
Keep in mind, this is from July 23rd:
The initial pull quote that everyone is running with is right here. Scandalous that Biden, contrary to statements he and his Admin have made over the past two weeks, knew that the Taliban were advancing rapidly and that “things aren’t going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban.”
Tisk tisk.
He then states there is a “need”, “whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.”
Why is that? Why is there a “need” to “project a different picture”, i.e.- that the fight against the Taliban is going well? I think that’s the question to ponder here.
Remember, this is from July 23rd.
Who is Bismallah Khan Mohammadi?
“Bismillah Khan, is an Afghan politician and the de jure Defense Minister of Afghanistan. From 2002 to 2010, he served as Chief of Staff of the Afghan National Army, and from 2010 to 2012 he held the post of Interior Minister of Afghanistan. He has an anti-Taliban background and once served as a senior commander under Ahmad Shah Massoud. Despite the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021, Mohammadi remains the Minister of Defense as part of the government of the Panjshir resistance.”
Bismillah Khan Mohammadi - Wikipedia
‘The acting Afghan Minister of National Defense Gen. Bismillah Mohammadi issued a brief tweet Sunday after President Ashraf Ghani and senior officials had left Afghanistan. In a clear reference to the former President, he said:
“They tied our hands behind our backs and sold the homeland, damn the rich man and his gang,” Bismillah wrote on his official Twitter account.’
Obviously Ghani did not do this, he did not empower Bismallah Khan to execute any such strategy.
Notice what Biden is proposing here, it’s a quid pro quo. Do this and you will receive more support.
His comments on the Afghan Forces are specious. Biden cut support to the Afghan Air Force and the prospect of the US leaving Afghanistan meant that the Afghan Forces, which were just a glorified jobs program, would collapse. At this moment, September 2nd, Afghanistan cannot pay anyone, they can’t even pay for the power they receive from neighboring countries and have asked for an extension on their bills while they try to get billions unfrozen and the foreign aid flowing again.
The “if we know what the plan is” remark is peculiar. Indicates that US and Afghan Govt/Forces were not on the same page as to how to withdrawal and provide air support at the same time.
Lies. Those first two sentences are outright lies. The Biden Admin was doing and continued to do the exact opposite of what he pledged to here.
Then Biden lays out the proposition, get these people together and empower Bismallah and that will “change perception, and that will change an awful lot I think.” Fair to assume he means there will be more support given.
Ghani may be correct, but I haven’t seen enough evidence to support these claims. Yes, some Taliban were in Pakistan and came back to Afghanistan for the campaign against the Afghan Govt. I’m not sure about the rest of it. I’m willing to believe it, though.
In saying all this, he is positing to Biden that Pakistan needs to be dealt with here. It could be an appeal to Biden for him to condemn Pakistan or it could be an attempt to scapegoat Pakistan for the failures of his Forces… or both. Likely both.
Biden Admin did the opposite. They pulled support for the Afghan Air Force, they pulled the maintenance contractors and that left the Afghan Air Force grounded. This is why Taliban were able to walk up to the airfields and seize so many aircraft. The aircraft was in need of maintenance, so AAF abandoned them.
First sentence gets at what I mentioned earlier about the Afghan Forces being largely a jobs program. As the US withdrew, and Taliban advanced, the Afghan Forces knew their paychecks would be stopping. And with the banks freezing the accounts of the Afghan Gov’t and the foreign aid ending, the paychecks would bounce anyway.
So Afghans said, “screw this, I’m out.” And the 300k strong Afghan Military walked away from their equipment and their posts. The End Game phase of this campaign by the Taliban to retake Afghanistan was a cake walk.
Now, that last sentence. Wow. I want to know more about that. Probably the juiciest part of this leaked transcript.
The time to have intra-Afghan talks with the Taliban ended on September 30th, 2020. The Intra-Afghan War began in earnest the next day.
Biden brings up the ground strategy again and holds close air support as conditional upon there being a ground strategy and him being aware of it. Interesting.
This isn’t incompetence here, folks. This is deliberate, intentional, sabotage of the Afghan Gov’t and Forces by the Biden Admin.
And then deliberate, intentional, sabotage of the extraction of SIVs, American Citizens, and US Forces.
But that’s another story, for next time.